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12 January 2009

A Prediction Market Cluster conference on Collective Wisdom

Well, following on from my last post about Collective Wisdom, it seems that Surowiecki started something big with his book!
Unfortunately, I won't make it (a bit too far from London!).
It seems that this subject is gaining a lot of interest and success stories.
I like the diagram above that is given on this conference web page. It's a good and simple summary of Surowiecki's key principles on collective wisdom.
If anyone reading this attends this conference, please contact me to let me know how it went.

08 December 2008

About The Wisdom of Crowds

In his book “The Wisdom of Crowds – Why the many are smarter than the few”, James Surowiecki makes - indirectly but nonetheless powerfully - a very good case for Knowledge Management or the leverage of individual and collective knowledge. Simply put this way, that the many are smarter than the few is hardly a contentious statement. After all, a croud of say 1000 individuals should be smarter than only 500 of this same croud most of the times. You have more minds available to solve a problem/find an answer. However, what Surowiecki means is that a croud of 1000 can be – with the right conditions – much smarter than the sum of its parts even when it acts/decides in a completely uncoordinated way (meaning each individual acts/decides in isolation from the others). In fact, such a group can be (and Surowiecki gives plenty of examples) smarter than the even best experts in a particular field! The three conditions for this group wisdom to materialise according to Surowiecki, are that it must be diverse, independent and decentralized. On diversity, Surowiecki writes (chapter 2, part III): <<The fact that cognitive diversity matters does not mean that if you assemble a group of diverse but thoroughly uninformed people, their collective wisdom will be smarter than an expert’s. But if you can assemble a diverse group of people who possess varying degrees of knowledge and insight, you’re better off entrusting it with major decisions rather than leaving them in the hands of one or two people, no matter how smart those people are.>>This can be hard to believe but Surowiecki then makes the case for this point very well and I cannot find any reason to disagree with him. On independence, he writes (chapter 3, part I): << First, [independence] keeps the mistakes that people make from becoming correlated.[..] One of the quickest way to make people’s judgments systematically biased is to make them dependent on each other for information. Second independent individuals are more likely to have new information rather than the same old data everyone is already familiar with. The smartest groups , then, are made up of people with diverse perspectives who are able to stay independent of each other. >> I would think that this condition is in theory much less contentious than the first one on diversity. However, the problem with true independence is that in practice, it is rather difficult to obtain. Often, decisions in a croud are made sequentially with each individual influenced by his/her predecessors.Therefore, Surowiecki advises that <<If you want to improve an organization’s or an economy’s decision making, one of the best things you can do is make sure, as much as possible, that decisions are made simultaneously (or close to it) rather than one after the other.>> On decentraization, he writes (chapter 4, part II): << [..] if you set a croud of self-interested, independent people to work in a decentralized way on the same problem, instead of trying to direct their efforts from the top down, their collective solution is likely to be better than any other solution you can come up with. [..] Decentralization’s great strength is that it encourages independence and specialization on the one hand while still allowing people to coordinate their activities and solve difficult problems on the other.>> However, Surowiecki then cautions that : << decentralization’s great weakness is that there’s no guarantee that valuable information which is uncovered in one part of the system will find its way through the rest of the system.>> He then asserts that for a crowd of any kinds to allow << individuals to specialize and to acquire local knowledge [..] while also being able to aggregate that local knowledge and private information into a collective whole, [..] [it] needs to find the right balance between the two imperatives: making individual knowledge globally and collectively useful (as we know it can be), while still allowing it to remain resolutely specific and local. >> Well, well, isn’t this where/when Knowledge Management should come in? In fact, for all intent and purposes, this is a definition of KM I am satisfied to work with in an organizational setting: any intentional and managed changes or activities with a conscious objective to facilitate/enable what is highlighted in blue above. But it then highlights a fundamental reason for organizational KM to have so often failed to deliver: the lack of management recognition that collective knowledge in practice is indeed always valuable, with the potential to be very often correct and effective. Leveraging knowledge is then not just about realizing (and doing something about it) that each employee’s knowledge is valuable (and that’s already hard enough for most senior managements) but that the collective knowledge of the whole or groups of employees is even more valuable. I think that a cultural shift is needed here for this realisation to become the norm rather than the exception. This shift has already started with the ubiquitous nature and global reach of the World Wide Web enabling huge crowds to influence decisions directly or indirectly (eg. Obama’s election). This shift now needs to enter the board rooms en masse. According to Malcolm Gladwell, “the tipping point” (see his book with this title) should be reached when between 10 and 15% of board rooms will have formally acknowledged the value and power of individual and collective knowledge. I can safely predict this will happen even if I cannot say when.

31 August 2008

Heathrow T5 opening fiasco continues to haunt travellers minds!

Back in April, I wrote about Heathrow irport Terminal 5 opening fiasco. I explained why I believe that on the part of British Airways, it was mostly due to a lack of training and lack of user acceptance testing of all the new systems and procedures. I also deduced from this that BA probably had an authoritative management style, a very hierarchical structure, and a corporate culture that didn't allow individuals at the bottom of the pyramid to voice concerns and constructive criticism in an effective manner. Later on, I watched amazed on BBC TV news , BA's CEO Willie Walsh acknowledging that his company's management did anticipate a difficult T5 opening, but that it was decided that the costs of delaying it would be greater than the potential costs of a failed opening! The costs directly attributed to the fiasco was estimated at £16m, already a big sum. However, I wonder if Mr Walsh and his team did account for this: Virgin sales are up thanks to T5 troubles

24 August 2008

Insightful Knowledge

I am currently reading the very interesting marketing book "Creating Market Insight. How firm create value from market understanding", written by Dr Brian Smith and Dr Paul Raspin (Wiley edition). I will surely write a few posts about this book but I'll start here with their definition of an insight in a business context: For knowledge to be considered insight, it must pass what the authors call the VRIO test. Knowledge must be << · "Valuable": Does this knowledge enable the firm to respond to environmental threats and opportunities? · "Rare”: Is this knowledge currently held only by the organisation and not by its competitors? · Not easily Imitable: Is it costly or difficult for other organisations to obtain or develop this knowledge? · Organisationally aligned: Is the firm organised, or can it be organised, to exploit this knowledge? >> The authors do not mean that non-insight knowledge isn’t useful of course. But they attempt to differentiate knowledge that is merely useful from knowledge that is insightful. I think it is an interesting framework but I am not convinced about their definition of valuable knowledge: “Knowledge is valuable if it enables us to change something, rather than maintain things, and that change is valuable to either the customer or to the firm.” Although the authors approach this from a marketing point of view, I really struggle to agree with the notion that valuable knowledge must imply change. The authors themselves acknowledge that “the value test is a contentious and difficult one to apply t to a piece of knowledge.” One problem with this view is that it risks to prioritize in the mind of managers all the ideas and projects that imply change. Ideas and projects to improve existing activities would not be given enough attention and resources. But often it is such improvement that sparks the creation of new knowledge, that in turn will lead to a “valuable” change. In other words, a change providing competitive advantage does happen in an improvements-rich context that cannot be completely dissociated from the change. So without a good dose of “useful” knowledge, the “valuable” knowledge wouldn’t be created at all, let alone lead to an insightful change. Furthermore, stating that the change must be valuable to either the customer or to the firm does not help at all to define valuable knowledge, since any piece of knowledge that isn’t meeting this characteristic cannot even be considered useful to the firm! I think the problem with this definition of insightful knowledge is the use of the word “valuable”. I cannot yet put my finger on it but there should be another way to define what the authors had in mind without the too simple differentiation through subjective value. When I think of something, I’ll post it here.

28 July 2008

Knowledge Management in ITIL v3

Read this very clear and insightful white paper from Peter Dorfman (dated May 2007):http://www.thinkhdi.com/hdi2008/files/ITIL3.pdf I agree with nearly all of it. Let me highlight one of Peter's concluding point: <<For end users, ITIL 3 is an opportunity to get KM onto executive radar screens, maybe for the first time.Managers who have tried to promote KM adoption may see this as a golden moment to advance a personal objective, and they may be right.>> This is absolutely correct but based on my experience, I would not advise IT Managers to seek the implementation of a KM specific software solution that would somehow sit on top of or alongside the Service Desk Management system. You will not succeed in making 1st and 2nd line technicians switch to a different tool to record or search for valuable knowledge.KM must be integrated with all the other processes (Incident/Request/Problem Mngt, etc...).To succeed, it must become part of the technician's normal activities to resolve issues or satisfy requests. As always, KM is first about people, culture and processes well before being about tools! And ITIL v3 actually does emphasize on this, and this is maybe one reason why it does not litteraly consider KM as a separate support process.